Opinion | France Is Headed for Disaster

Things are not going according to plan.Three weeks ago, President Emmanuel Macron of France called a snap vote hoping to regain political control after a crushing defeat in the European election.

On Sunday, in the first round of voting, the far-right National Rally topped the poll and the left-wing New Popular Front coalition finished second.Mr.

Macron’s Renaissance party came in a distant third.Now, after taking about 33 percent of the vote, the far right is on course for a stunning victory in Sunday’s second round.If National Rally secures an absolute majority in the National Assembly — taking 289 seats or more — Mr.

Macron will have to invite Jordan Bardella, the party’s 28-year-old leader, to form a government.Under a system of “cohabitation” with the president, National Rally would be in power, free to carry out its hard-line anti-migrant agenda.

For the first time since the Vichy regime, France would be in the hands of the far right.The more likely scenario, however, is that National Rally falls short of a majority, leaving France with a hung parliament.Things would quickly become messy.

As the biggest party, National Rally would still try to gather the support of other parties to pass legislation — but no one, perhaps besides a few defecting deputies from the right-wing Republicans, will want to enable the far right to govern.With a weakened Mr.

Macron atop a fractious and uncooperative assembly, France would enter a profound political crisis with no remedy in sight.In the event of a hung parliament, Mr.Macron would have very few options.

No modern French president has faced a situation of such political and institutional blockage.His only option would be to attempt to bring about a so-called national unity government, comprising deputies from Renaissance, the Republicans and possibly some moderate deputies from the New Popular Front.

But it’s doubtful that such an opportunistic gathering would reach a majority.If the numbers are the...