Picks against the spread for Sundays and Mondays NFL Week 1 slate

The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 1 slate.Divisional round underdogs of fewer than 6.5 points in Weeks 1-3 are 94-94-2 outright since 2003.Bettors over that span enjoy a 22 percent return on investment.

This is the perfect time to attack if you are a believer in Carolina, as I am.Derek Carr isn’t much of an upgrade over Bryce Young, who has loads to prove in 2024, and the Panthers might not know they are bad yet.Rookie sensation Caleb Williams’ NFL debut won’t be all sunshine and rainbows.

Rookie quarterbacks have a combined 16-35-1 record in openers, including 0-7-1 in the past five seasons.The last rookie QB to win his opener? The mighty Sam Darnold, in 2018 against the Lions.

Surely the Bears could win this one, but you won’t see me laying more than a field goal.They’re healthy, for now.Miami is really better everywhere, especially at the playmaker spots, and Jacksonville didn’t improve enough for my liking.

There are some modest defensive acquisitions, and Ezra Cleveland should help at guard, but this is still one of the worst offensive lines in football.And don’t forget that star pass rusher Jaelan Phillips is back in the fold for Miami.No one likes to lay this big of a number on the favorites, but the Bengals are too talented and New England is too messy.

The Bengals will enjoy the return of Ja’Marr Chase, who figures to be matched up with star (that you have not heard about yet) cornerback Christian Gonzalez.If Bill Belichick were out there, I’d be more interested in taking the eight.It’s make or break time for Brian Daboll and the Big Blue brain trust.

The Giants have the clear edge defensively in this matchup, so don’t try to sell me on Darnold being anything more than a backup quarterback at this point.This is one of the few matchups where Daniel Jones will actually be the “A” side of a game.New look, who dis? Both of these teams come in completely different than the year prio...