There’s a game of musical chairs occurring in the National League wild-card race, and the Mets can’t afford to miss a seat.They auspiciously host the Nationals as they jockey with the Braves for the final NL playoffs spot with 13 games left on the schedule.The Mets have conquered the season series, 8-2, against Washington both straight-up and against the spread.What’s more is they swept the Nats in the first meeting at Citi Field by a 20-7 run margin.Jake Irvin settles into a Nationals rotation that’s gotten hit for a .311 average on balls batted in play, the third-highest mark in baseball.The sophomore right-hander gained a confidence victory in his last start, containing a flammable Braves lineup to only two hits in six innings.
But Irvin has only posted back-to-back wins twice this season, while the Mets have handed him a 5.79 ERA in three career starts.Irvin has regressed significantly since his last start against the Mets on July 9.He’s attempting to turn the page from a woeful August.A big issue is he struggles to escape jams — recording a .466 slug percentage against with men in scoring position.Sean Manaea has made for a relatively steady presence throughout his first season for the Amazin’s.
He’s been explicitly effective down the stretch, with a 4-1 record and a 3.00 ERA since the start of August.It’s not a secret how much more offensive upside the Mets hold over Washington: They are 16 runs better in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), a metric that quantifies run creation while including external factors.I’ll take the heavier bats, more consistent pitching and favorable matchup trends for value on the run line.THE PLAY: Mets -1.5 (FanDuel, +114)Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post.He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk....