Why winning Michigan can win Trump the presidency

DETROIT — If Donald Trump wins Michigan, he has a 95% chance of winning the 2024 election, according to numbers guru Nate Silver.This explains the Trump campaign practically camping out in the Great Lakes State.It was Grand Rapids where the former president held his first rally after being shot in Butler, Pa., and welcoming Ohio Sen.

J.D.Vance as his running mate.

It was Howell where Trump gave a message on law and order alongside several Michigan sheriffs.And Tuesday it will be Flint where Trump holds his first town hall since Sunday’s discovery of a second would-be assassin.“We have become our own bellwether of a traditional voter,” Michigan-based pollster Ed Sarpolus, a 52-year veteran of public opinion, told The Post.

“We have labor, we have the black voter, a little bit of everybody.If you can’t win in Michigan, how are you going to win in North Carolina?”Silver’s analysis was amplified by Rep.

Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat running neck-and-neck with Republican former Rep.Mike Rogers for Michigan’s open Senate seat.

Slotkin struck a worried tone Saturday in an email titled “Nate Silver’s Michigan analysis.”Slotkin put these lines in bold text: “Trump’s chance of winning if he wins Michigan? 95.1% – the highest of any seriously competitive swing state.”She continued: “There is no holding the Senate without winning Michigan.There is no winning the White House without winning Michigan. And the better Elissa Slotkin does, the better Kamala Harris does in Michigan.”For Harris, Michigan is not quite as pivotal.

A Wolverine State victory would give her a 77% chance of winning the entire race.Sarpolus said that in Michigan, Republicans start with about 52% of the white vote.

How other groups vote and in what numbers often decide who wins.“As long as the white vote only breaks 52% Republican, and people of color turn out, the Democrats will win statewide” typically.

Polls show the Michigan race well within the margin of er...