WNBA playoffs predictions, odds, picks: Take a shot on Lynx

The WNBA playoff picture is set with the New York Liberty clinching home-court advantage as the top seed and the Minnesota Lynx in the No.2 slot. The playoffs begin Sunday and all eyes will be on rookie Caitlin Clark, who guided Indiana to its first postseason appearance in the last eight years.

The Fever enter as the No.6 seed. But with the regular season dust settled, it’s tough to make a case for any team outside the top four seeds to win the championship, especially when you consider that only once since 2016 — when the W went to an eight-team field — has a seed higher than No.

2 won it all (No.6 Chicago Sky in 2021). However, there is one whose odds are completely mispriced, given how well it’s played against the leading contenders. Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier (20.3 points, 9.8 rebounds) would likely be the runaway MVP winner if the Aces’ A’ja Wilson didn’t have arguably the greatest individual season in WNBA history. In addition to becoming the first player to score 1,000 points in a season, Wilson also set the league record for rebounds in a season, passing Sky rookie Angel Reese, who established the mark three weeks earlier before suffering a season-ending injury. Las Vegas got off to a sluggish 6-6 start, even as Wilson filled the stats sheet nightly.

And while the Aces would go on to win 12 of their next 18 games, something still wasn’t quite right with the team. In 2023, the Aces posted an absurd +15.3 Net Rating during the regular season on their way to a second straight title. They led the league with a 97.7 Defensive Rating, yet this season, the top four defensive teams have ratings ranging from 94.5 to 96.2.Las Vegas ranks fifth in that category, 3.5 points behind Seattle. Recently, the Aces have gone back to their defensive roots.

Over their last eight games, they’ve held opponents under 80 points while posting the best defensive rating (93.4) during that span. Nonetheless, while the Aces are the two-time defending ...