Brewing tropical threat to US could play out in four different ways
The next tropical threat to the U.S.is brewing in the Caribbean as there are increasing signs that the ingredients needed for a tropical storm or even a hurricane are coming together.A number of computer forecast models depict a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week, but there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, with several potential outcomes.The National Hurricane Center currently gives medium odds of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days.
The odds have been steadily increasing over the past week, and further development may loom beyond seven days as the development window gets closer, according to the FOX Forecast Center.“From Texas to Florida, the entire Gulf Coast is still at play,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan.Pieces of the puzzle are going to be slow to come together.There are strong indications a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre will form in the coming days.The gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure that feeds off moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America.At its core, it is a heavy rain producer with impacts extending outwards hundreds of miles and leading to threats of torrential rainfall, flooding and landslides for more than a dozen countries centered in and around Central America.However, organized low-pressure centers can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes within the larger gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development.
Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are near the record-warm levels set last season. The ultimate fate of tropical development will depend on where the gyre forms, how strong it becomes and the atmospheric steering – or blocking – patterns occurring in the southern U.S.There are four main scenarios with how the forecast will shake out, each succe...