New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston prediction: CFB Week 4 underdog pick

This weekend’s college football slate has a handful of notable games that most fans will be keen to watch.New Mexico State vs.Sam Houston isn’t one of them.But that’s the beauty of sitting back and betting on college football on a Saturday — there’s something for everyone.

And NMSU vs Sam Houston is right up our alley in our quest to find the best ugly underdog every weekend.It’s been an impressive start to 2024 for Sam Houston.The Bearkats are 2-1, with their lone loss coming on the road to UCF.

But it isn’t just the start to this season that’s been notable; Sam Houston also closed 2023 — their first season as an FBS school — in style.The Bearkats started last season with eight losses on the spin, but they finished the season with three wins in their last four games as things started to come together.With better luck — four of SHSU’s defeats last fall were by one score — this team could have been .500 in its first year as an FBS program.Sam Houston has carried that positive momentum into 2024 by bookending their loss at UCF with wins against Rice and Hawaii. Blended with the strong finish in 2023, those results has the betting market believing that this team could be a rabble-rouser in Conference USA.

The Bearkats are 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico State (1-2) on Saturday.While it’s clear Sam Houston is a much better team than NMSU right now, it does seem like the market is getting a little carried away with this number. First of all, the Bearkats don’t profile as a team you want to back to cover these large spreads.They did roast Rice and Hawaii, but they want to keep the ball on the ground when they’re on offense.

Sam Houston has run the ball on nearly 60% of its plays, which keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. Not only is this offense rush-heavy, but it’s more methodical than explosive.Sam Houston ranks 89th in plays of 10-plus yards and 93rd in plays of 20-plus yards on the season.New Mexico State’s n...