Whats Behind Trumps Best Poll Results in Weeks

We’re getting to the point in the election cycle where we’re starting to get a lot of polls — enough that it will occasionally start to feel as if the polls are swinging from left to right and back, every day.This is one of those days.This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina find Donald J.Trump leading Kamala Harris in all three states, with a lead of three points in North Carolina, four points in Georgia and five points in Arizona.In one sense, the finding is very clear: It’s a good set of numbers for Mr.

Trump.It’s not necessarily an exceptional one, as Ms.

Harris’s easiest path to victory lies in the Northern battlegrounds.But Mr.

Trump’s path to victory begins in the Sun Belt; if he wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more.In another sense, this result might give you a bit of polling whiplash.As I wrote in my weekly polling summary, the polls have been relatively stable over the last week — or even a hair better for Vice President Harris than polls taken before the debate.

These latest Times/Siena results don’t fit that story at all: On average, the results are five points better for Mr.Trump than they were when we last polled these states, in mid-August.

And in each state, these results are the best results for Mr.Trump from a high-quality pollster in weeks.In circumstances like this, our rule of thumb is to toss the results into a polling average — like our Times polling average.Of the three states, Georgia is the one where the balance of polling is most clearly favorable to Mr.

Trump.Ms.

Harris hasn’t led a poll of Georgia taken in September, and Mr.Trump has led in several high-quality polls, like a three-point lead in a University of Georgia poll last week.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.

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