Watch where Trump and Harris campaign in Pennsylvania it might tell you wholl get the must-win state

Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, could well be the keystone for the election.Where it falls will likely be determined by which of its political regions turns out in the greatest numbers.Democrats have long relied on running up the score in the state’s cities.

That certainly includes Philadelphia and Pittsburgh but extends to middle-tier places that also produce large Democratic margins.Scranton, Harrisburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, Erie and Wilkes-Barre are as important to their chances as either of the two metropolises.Dems’ chances could prove more challenging this year because of Donald Trump’s relative improvement with minority voters.

Each of these places, and other smaller ones, has significant numbers of blacks, Latinos or both.Trump ran better with these demographics in 2020 than he did in 2016, and polls have shown the former president running a few points ahead of his 2020 results.Cutting the Democratic margins in the party’s strongholds will make a Trump win much more likely.That’s because Trump should sweep much of the rest of the state.

James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager, famously quipped that Pennsylvania consisted of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.That greatly overstates the Republican proclivity here, but the areas between the two cities remain a GOP vote sink of massive proportions.These areas are also the heartland of the Obama-Trump blue-collar voter who’s fueled Trump’s rise.Luzerne County, in the state’s northeast corner, is a prime example.

Barack Obama carried it by 5 points against patrician Mitt Romney, but Trump won it by 19 points versus Hillary Clinton.Even “Scranton Joe” Biden could only whittle Trump’s margin here to 14 points.Since then, Republicans have continued to gain and look likely to pass Democrats in the voter registration rolls by Election Day for the first time in decades.Something similar has been happening statewide.

Democrats had a 685,000-person lead over R...