Colorado vs. UCF prediction: College football odds, picks, best bets Saturday
A week after needing a fourth-quarter Hail Mary touchdown pass to help beat Baylor in Boulder, Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes hit the road for a Big 12 clash against Central Florida on Saturday afternoon.UCF is off to a 3-0 start, straight-up and against the spread.The Knights are a heavy home favorite, laying 14 points after being as high as -15.5.Bookmakers also project plenty of points with the total hovering around 62 points.
The one concern is the weather, as there’s some rain in the forecast for the Orlando area with winds up to 10 mph.However, both offenses have a distinct advantage they can exploit, and in this preview I’ll share how that edge can impact a specific player prop.With a record of 3-1, Colorado is already halfway to its win total of 5.5 games.The problem is that the Buffaloes likely won’t be favored again until Week 9, when they host Cincinnati.However, after a projection of 3.5 wins in 2023, we can acknowledge that there has been a moderate improvement.
The Buffaloes finished last season 114th defensively (+0.04) in Adjusted Expected Points Added (Adj.EPA) per play.
And now through four games, they’re up to 36th with a -0.11 value.Colorado will face a stiff test against a UCF offense ranking seventh in Adj.EPA (-0.11).
To be more specific, its biggest challenge will be slowing down a Knights’ rushing attack that’s second in the nation in yards per game (336.5).UCF is one of five teams with a run-play rate of 73% or higher, with the top three teams all service academy schools.The Knights also have the highest rushing success rate at 57.4%, and if they stay ahead of the chains, they’ll have an excellent opportunity to cash in on their chances inside the red zone.UCF’s success running the ball helps to tilt the time of possession battle in its favor.According to TeamRankings, the Knights control the ball for almost 33.5 minutes per game, the 14th-longest mark in Division I. Winning the time of possession battle could...