USC vs. Wisconsin prediction: Week 5 CFB odds, picks, best bets

Looking to bounce back from a 27-24 loss at Michigan, USC returns home to host Wisconsin on Saturday.The Trojans somehow lost despite throwing for 283 passing yards compared to just 32 for the Wolverines.However, USC had no answer for a Wolverines rushing attack that racked up 290 yards on 46 carries.The Trojans could expect a similar game plan from a Badgers team that ranks 44th with a run-play rate of 55.71% and could increase that number following the loss of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who tore his ACL two weeks ago against Alabama.The truth is, UW’s offense was already struggling to meet expectations even before Van Dyke’s injury, so why should things be any different under sophomore Braedyn Locke, who will be making just his fourth career start?Evaluating Wisconsin is much more intricate than just comparing the two quarterbacks.For example, we must also consider how the Badgers performed under Van Dyke.In their first two games, they averaged 27.5 points while failing to cover the spread as a favorite, laying 24 and 18.5 points against Western Michigan and South Dakota at home.Although the Badgers rank 47th with 172.5 rushing yards per game, they’re 80th with an average of 4 yards per carry.

Moreover, if we convert those numbers into Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush, Wisconsin ranks 96th with a -0.04 mark.The scoring opportunities simply aren’t there for Wisconsin, which is tied for 94th in red-zone attempts (11) and 96th in touchdown conversion (54.55%).Given those numbers, I’m suspicious of this offense under a second-year backup quarterback. The Trojans outgained Michigan in yardage 379-322, but a Will Johnson 42-yard touchdown interception played a vital role in the Wolverines pulling off the victory.Although USC ultimately lost the game, transitioning to the Big Ten could strengthen its title chances by forcing it to improve more defensively.

While we’re only four weeks into the season, the early returns suggest that this USC defense is ...