Week 4 NFL player props, picks, odds: Chubba Hubbard, George Pickens, more
We’re onto Week 4 in the NFL, and I’m back with three more player props for Sunday’s slate.Last week, I went 2-0 in this column, bringing my season total to 6-0.
However, it’s a fresh week, so let’s find some more winners.On Sunday, I’m targeting a running back in Carolina with a great matchup, a receiver in Pittsburgh on the verge of a breakout, and a rookie in Arizona with a sky-high ceiling.(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_).Hubbard finished with an impressive 21 carries for 114 yards last week against the Raiders and benefitted from an ideal script for the run game.
I don’t foresee that game script again on Sunday against Cincinnati, but this is another matchup he can exploit.The Bengals rank 26th in defensive line yards and 31st in defensive EPA against the run.
They could also be without three starting defensive linemen — Trey Hendrickson, B.J.Hill and Sheldon Rankins.According to Fantasy Points Data, Hubbard ranks fourth among 35 qualified running backs with 3.32 yards after contact per attempt.
He also leads all running backs in percentage of carries to gain over 5 yards this season.Dave Canales has repeatedly emphasized wanting to establish the run on early downs, and this is an excellent spot for Hubbard to produce.It’s been a relatively quiet start to the season for Pickens, but his underlying metrics are elite.
He has a 25% target share and ranks 12th in deep targets.He also ranks third in the NFL with a 49.9% air-yard share.I this is the week we see a true breakout game for Pickens against Indianapolis, who have struggled in pass defense.The Colts rank 21st against the pass by DVOA and 26th against WR1s.
They have allowed Nico Collins, Romeo Doubs, Rome Odunze and D.J.Moore to average 92 yards over the first three games.
They run Cover 3 at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and Pickens is averagi...