Why Hispanics are abandoning Democrats and could put Trump back in the White House
Hispanic Americans have long been a bedrock of support for the Democratic Party.There are signs that’s changing — and it could decide the election this November.Democrats have won the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1972.
With the exception of 2004, Democratic nominees since 1992 had always beaten their Republican counterpart by at least 35 points with Hispanic voters.That began to change, surprisingly to some, during the Trump administration.Hispanics are largely working-class, and by 2020 they had begun to warm up to Donald Trump and his party.Joe Biden won Hispanics by only 23 points, 60 to 37, data from the Democratic firm Catalist show.That was enough to shift Florida from a swing state to one that leaned Republican and boosted Trump in both Nevada and Arizona.Republicans held these gains despite the poor national environment in the 2022 midterms.
The Democratic-leaning firm Equis Research estimates Democrats won about the same share of the Hispanic vote in House races and key Senate and gubernatorial races as Biden did in 2020.The GOP was disappointed it didn’t do any better despite significant outreach to the Hispanic community.But simply keeping the gains was telling.Polls show Trump is doing better with Hispanics today than he was in 2020.
The Cook Political Report’s demographic polling average estimates Kamala Harris leads Trump by roughly 12 points, an 11-point drop from Biden’s margin.It’s also telling that Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote has not dropped following Harris’ entry into the race.While Harris is polling about 5 points higher than Biden was when he dropped out, Trump’s 41.9% of Latinos is statistically identical to the 41.8% he was receiving at Biden’s departure.Even one of the more favorable surveys for Harris shows she’s slipping among Hispanics.
A recent Pew Research poll finds her leading Trump 57 to 39 with Hispanics — whereas Biden had been ahead 61 to 36.That’s a 7-point decline in ...