Mets vs. Brewers Game 1 prediction: MLB Wild Card odds, picks, best bets

The Mets completed the comeback of a lifetime Monday when they overcame two deficits late in the first leg of a doubleheader to defeat the Atlanta Braves, 8-7, and advance to the postseason.However, the Mets will have to battle some fatigue, given the quick turnaround to Tuesday’s Game 1 of the National League wild-card series in Milwaukee.It won’t help that they’ll face a Brewers team that dominated the season series, winning five of the six games, including two of three last weekend.More importantly, the Mets have yet to figure out Milwaukee’s starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, who emerged as the staff’s ace after last year’s announcement that Brandon Woodruff would miss the entire season with a shoulder injury.While expectations will be high for the Mets starter Luis Severino, this couldn’t be a more challenging spot for him.The Mets signed Severino on a one-year deal worth $13 million to help fill the rotation.Had Severino pitched well enough last year in 19 appearances (18 starts) for the Yankees (4-8, 6.65 ERA), he never would have hit the free-agent market.Thus, his performance this year (11-7, 3.91 ERA) in 31 starts suggests he still has a quality arm to help a major-league staff.This season has already been a success for Severino and his quest for another long-term contract.

There isn’t anything he can do in the postseason to damage that.The biggest surprise is that he’s now striking out fewer batters per nine innings (K/9) despite averaging around 96.2 mph on his fastball.  FanGraphs lists his 7.96 K/9 ratio as the lowest of his nine-year career. Since last year, he’s increased the use of his sinker from 2.8% to 24.8%, but Milwaukee’s lineup is scoring 7.1 runs above league average when facing the pitch.His head-to-head numbers against this Brewers roster also aren’t great, as they’re hitting .333 with a .406 wOBA and .459 xSLG in 48 plate appearances.If we turn to Peralta, his 10.36 K/9 ratio suggests he’s elite at missing b...