Michigan State vs. Oregon predictions, odds: Week 6 college football best bets, picks

As head coach of Oregon State between 2018-23, Jonathan Smith went 2-4 against in-state Oregon. However, Smith’s Beavers also went 0-3 in Eugene, losing each game by an average of 15.6 points. After taking the Michigan State job in the offseason, Smith will take his Spartans back to Eugene to build a new intraconference rivalry with the Ducks — this time in the Big Ten.The Spartans have lost two straight and are catching 23.5 points against the 4-0 Ducks, with the total sitting around 52.5. Here’s a preview of the Friday night Michigan State vs.Oregon matchup with a prediction and pick.The Ducks underperformed in the early going, going 1-3 against the spread, but they’ve started to round into form. Specifically, the pass defense has looked dramatically improved. The unit has snuck up to 12th in EPA per Pass allowed, ninth in Pass Success Rate allowed and fourth in Pro Football Focus’s coverage grades.

Oregon ranks third in passes defended and is among the top 10 in creating contested catches. Top cornerbacks Jabbar Muhammad and Brandon Johnson have allowed 15 receptions on 33 targets – suitable for a 45% completion rate – while chipping in eight PBUs and 19 tackles. While I’m still relatively low on Oregon’s front seven, which ranks 119th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, the unit showed up against UCLA last week, amassing four sacks and seven tackles for loss.Derrick Harmon had one of each against the Bruins and now leads all FBS defensive linemen in PFF’s Pass Rush grades. Add it all together, and Oregon ranks fourth nationally in Havoc generated. Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks 119th in the same metric. MSU’s offensive line has done a poor job at protecting quarterback Aidan Chiles, ranking 127th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades and 76th in sack percentage allowed.

And given he’s under pressure about one-third of the time, Chiles has thrown nine picks on 14 turnover-worthy plays, the most among Power 5 quarterbacks. Michigan ...