NFL Week 5 predictions: Browns vs. Commanders, Colts vs. Jaguars player props
It’s Week 5 of the NFL season, and I’m back with three more player props for the Sunday slate. I’m 8-1 on my NFL prop picks this season, and I’m looking to find more winners this week by using my trusted strategy of targeting the Commanders and Colts pass defenses. It’s been a brutal start to the season for the Browns’ offense, which ranks 31st in EPA/play.Amari Cooper has been a significant culprit with a league-leading eight drops.
He had just seven last season, and he should get that cleaned up moving forward. Cooper caught an 82-yard bomb for a touchdown last week, but it was called back on a penalty.If that play stood, I doubt we would be seeing a line of 49.5 for Cooper this week, given the enticing matchup.
The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and have allowed four receivers to finish with 50-plus yards this season. Cooper still ranks seventh in the NFL with a 46.8 percent air-yard share and 18th with a 25 percent target share.He’s due for some positive regression with a 43.2 percent catch rate, ranking second-to-last of all receivers with at least 25 targets this season. Watson should be working on two straight games with two-plus passing touchdowns, and he played well last week, finishing with an 88.5 passing grade from Pro Football Focus — his highest mark in a Browns jersey. The Commanders have allowed 16 of 21 opposing quarterbacks to finish with two-plus passing touchdowns.
That list includes names such as Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Tyrod Taylor and Desmond Ridder.Tight end David Njoku is also expected to return this week, giving the Browns another big-bodied threat to lean on around the goal line. The rookie has seen his involvement in the Jaguars’ offense increase weekly, culminating in a season-high 33.3 percent first-read target share last week.
That sets up incredibly well for a matchup against the Colts, who rank outside the top 20 against the pass in seemingly every adva...