Saints vs. Chiefs prediction: Monday Night Football odds, picks, best bet
The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are off to a 4-0 start, but with an average margin of victory of just five points, they’ve shown some cracks in the armor.On Monday night, they will play host to a Saints team that started red-hot with two impressive wins but has since lost two straight.The Chiefs enter the matchup as 5.5-point favorites, with the over-under sitting at 43 points.Let’s dive into ‘Monday Night Football‘ matchup and offer a best bet.It’s been refreshing to see Klint Kubiak orchestrating the Saints offense this year.
After New Orleans had one of the most archaic, debilitating and boring offenses in the league in 2023, Kubiak has injected new life via misdirection, varied personnel and a heavy dose of play-action passing.Derek Carr has been a highly productive play-action passer throughout his career, but the Saints utilized it at the lowest rate in the league last season.It was baffling, and Kubiak has righted the ship with the third-highest play-action rate in the league this year.
Predictably, Carr has rebounded and ranks first in Pro Football Focus passing grades and fourth in EPA+CPOE.Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense ranks fourth in blitz rate, which could create issues against a Saints offensive line that PFF ranks 29th in pass-blocking.However, Carr has carved up opponents this year with 9 yards per pass attempt, which ranks sixth in the NFL.Expect a high rate of press man coverage, as well, which could lead to big plays for wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.I expected a rebound season from Patrick Mahomes after a down year statistically in 2023, but the losses of Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, and Marquise Brown put this offense in a bind.
They now have a bottom-five skill position group headlined by a declining Travis Kelce and rookie Xavier Worthy, who has yet to prove himself as more than a gadget player and deep threat.It’s difficult to overstate the significance of the loss of Rice, who had begun to break out...