NFL predictions, odds: Why long-shot Broncos can make a postseason run
Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos have won three games in a row. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is finding his footing in the NFL, and Vance Joseph’s defense has been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks. Despite that, we can find Denver at nearly 2/1 odds to make the playoffs.The sportsbooks are not buying into this surging Broncos squad and I believe that sets up value on their price to make the postseason.The Broncos are the focus of my column this week on the NFL futures betting markets, where odds can change quickly, providing opportunities to find value on the board.Sean Payton never wanted to coach Russell Wilson, and that much was painfully evident last season as the coach and quarterback never got on the same page.
However, Payton handpicked Nix to run his team, and the former Oregon Duck is coming off his best game as a pro. Nix completed 19-of-27 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders, and he should have had a third score if not for a drop by rookie wideout Troy Franklin on what would have been a 45-yard touchdown strike.Perhaps most importantly, Nix hasn’t made many mistakes.
Over the last four weeks, he has the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL.With Nix emerging as a real passing threat, defenses haven’t been able to load the box as frequently, and Denver’s run game is finding its legs.As a result, Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin both rank in the top four in the league in missed tackles forced per attempt this season, per Pro Football Focus.That’s more than enough to find success with how well Denver’s defense is playing.
The Broncos have the third-best defense in the NFL by EPA/play, and Vance Joseph has been in his bag this season.Denver ranks second in the NFL with a 40.1% blitz rate, and it runs more Cover 0 and Cover 1 out of man coverage than just about any team in the league.Joseph trusts his defensive backs to hold up in one-on-one settings while letting loose with creative blitz pack...