Middle East Conflict Creates a Volatile Moment for Oil Markets

The spiraling conflict between Israel and Iran has sent shock waves through the oil market, increasing prices as investors grapple with potential disruptions to the global oil supply.Oil prices have jumped since Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel last week.Brent crude, the international benchmark, surpassed $81 a barrel in the days afterward, a gain of about 15 percent.

It traded around $79 a barrel on Friday.Despite the growing apprehension among traders, prices are lower than they were as recently as July — and unusually subdued for a time of such geopolitical tension.“In a normal world, this would have gone skyrocketing,” Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said during a webinar on Wednesday.Instead, prices are being weighed down by factors like slowing demand in China, increased production in the United States and other countries, and the expectation that the OPEC Plus cartel could soon put more oil on the market.But analysts say Israel could attack Iranian oil facilities or other sensitive infrastructure, leading Tehran to lash out at important targets.

That could seriously disrupt oil production — something that has not happened during the past year’s conflict in the Middle East — and push prices higher.“We’re probably getting into a cycle of Israel on Iran, you know, volleys, if you will, and attacks,” said Bob McNally, the president of the research firm Rapidan Energy Group and a White House energy adviser in the George W.Bush administration.

“And once that gets going, all bets are off.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe....