Missouri vs. UMass prediction, odds: Target this massive college football Week 7 underdog

The Missouri Tigers were one of the surprises of the 2023 season.Mizzou went 11-2, collected wins over Tennessee, Kansas State, Florida and Kentucky and then upset Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.It was a godsend campaign for the Tigers, who were wandering the college football abyss for much of the last decade.The downside to a magical season is that it raises expectations for the next one.

But that didn’t seem like an issue for the Tigers since they were going to return a lot of their best players and they bolstered their roster in the transfer portal.All of this added up to Missouri turning into a bit of a trendy sleeper in both the SEC and to make some noise in the College Football Playoff.The Tigers looked up for the challenge out of the gates as they dismantled Murray State and Buffalo by a combined score of 89-0, but things started to trend down as their schedule got tougher.Mizzou eked out a win over Boston College, 27-21, in Columbia and then needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt, but the warning signs were there for the Tigers and it was not a shock that they were played off the field by Texas A&M in a 41-10 drubbing last weekend.You’d think that a date with UMass would be a perfect get-right spot for Mizzou — and it may be — but it’s also not a situation where you want to be laying this kind of number.First of all, it’s just a wonky schedule spot.

The Tigers were demoralized in front of nearly 100,000 people at Kyle Field last weekend and now need to travel to Amherst, Mass., to play in front of maybe 5,000 fans in a non-conference game sandwiched between contests with Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama and Oklahoma.But it’s not just the schedule spot that makes Missouri unappealing as a four-score favorite.Simply put, the Tigers just are not playing all that well this season.

Mizzou’s offense ranks 68th nationally in Yards Per Play and they’re 78th (tied with UMass!) in Long Scrimmage Plays (10+ yards) despite the fact that the Tigers abso...