How Hurricanes Milton and Helene could impact Election 2024

Poll-watchers always wonder what might be the “October Surprise” of any presidential election cycle.  The pair of massive hurricanes that smashed into the southeast United States over the past week certainly qualify as surprises — and could shape the outcome of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.Large-scale natural disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton attract public interest in ways that other types of news do not.People who rarely follow politics pay attention to acts of God, empathizing with their victims while wondering how they might fare if such disasters had impacted them.

People want — and need — to know that those requiring help are receiving it.Which is why the government’s disaster response is the first thing that could shape voter opinions.Every story of aid not reaching disaster-stricken communities will be amplified in today’s 24/7/365 social media driven world.

So the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA’s) response is critical.The faster it reduces hardship and restores order, the less damage will accrue to Vice President Kamala Harris, whose administration will ultimately be held accountable FEMA’s performance.The endless news focus on the hurricanes, however, could also serve as a liability to Harris by reducing the amount of attention her campaign receives in the rest of the news. This is a crucial moment for Harris.

Those early bursts of joy have been nearly exhausted, and her lead remains short of what’s needed to calm jittery Democratic nerves.Americans mostly know what they think of Donald Trump, but many are still unsure how they feel about Kamala Harris. The vice president needs consistent, positive exposure to firm up her polling numbers.

And every minute spent on disaster coverage works against her.Then there’s Donald Trump, who could easily insert himself into the hurricane narrative in ways Harris cannot counter.Trump, for instance, offered free lodging in his South Florida h...