State of the Race: A Close Race Gets Closer

The presidential race just keeps getting tighter.With three weeks to go, The New York Times’s polling average shows Kamala Harris and Donald J.Trump essentially tied across the seven key battleground states, with the two separated by less than one percentage point in five of the seven.It’s hard to think of any election when so many critical states were so close in the polls at this stage.By our reckoning, 2004 was the last election when the polls showed a candidate leading in the pivotal states by around one point — George W.

Bush’s edge in states like Ohio and Wisconsin.But even then, he had a discernible if still narrow edge in the Electoral College: John Kerry needed to sweep most of the close states to prevail.

The polling couldn’t really be characterized as a tie, like the polls today.Before 2004? There’s the 2000 election, of course, but the polls weren’t quite as close as the actual result.Looking even further back, it’s hard to find anything.

There has never been an election with so many polls showing such a close race.Is the really race tightening?The polling averages are tighter than ever, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s been a huge shift — or even any shift — in the race.The biggest shifts in the average this week were in Michigan and Wisconsin.And in this case, “biggest” does not mean “big.” Mr.

Trump gained a single point according to our averages — the kind of movement that may feel seismic in such a closely divided and stable election, but wouldn’t be worthy of much note in previous cycles.It’s also a shift that’s small enough that one or two high-quality polls for Ms.

Harris next week could quickly send her numbers back up.Indeed, it was only one or two high-quality polls that brought her numbers down....