The GOP Senate PAC worries about these states but sees stars in others

Republicans reveling in Donald Trump’s gains against Kamala Harris in recent polling may need to curb their enthusiasm, as new internal surveys from a GOP political-action committee say the Senate is a heavier lift.That’s what the Senate Leadership Fund contends in an internal “polling and media update” released last week, as the group preps for the stretch run.The two biggest pressure points: Nebraska and Texas, where incumbents Deb Fischer and Ted Cruz lag behind the Trump-Vance ticket, forcing the SLF to look at 11th-hour Hail Marys to “guard the flanks.”The former is a “serious trouble-spot as polls show Sen.Deb Fischer in a tight race with Dan Osborn, an Independent in the mold of Bernie Sanders.” SLF is “polling to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat.”And in the Lone Star State, Ted Cruz clings to a 1-point lead against better-financed, bigger-spending Colin Allred, even as Trump leads Harris by 5.

GOP “outside groups” are spending, and the SLF is mulling getting involved to save the incumbent and a seat Republicans must hold to take control of the Senate next year.Michigan may be a lost cause, with Mike Rogers 8 points behind Rep.Elissa Slotkin in the contest for the seat of outgoing Sen.

Debbie Stabenow.“The climb in Mike Rogers’ unfavorable numbers and his drop on the ballot are a textbook case of what happens when a candidate isn’t on the air to shape his image and deflect attacks,” SLF comments. Trump is down 3 in the state in the internal polling, suggesting GOP insiders may be souring on their prospects in the blue-wall state for another election cycle.But SLF is committing $22.8 million all the same this month. The question, though: Is it too late to make up that gap? Certainly, there is some good news, including from Big Sky Country, where the SLF and allies “pushed Jon Tester’s image and ballot position upside-down, giving Tim Sheehy a small but durable lead,” which could help Repub...