Holiday Sales Growth Expected to Normalize to Prepandemic Levels
The holiday shopping season this year is marked by abnormalities: A contentious presidential election, uncertainty about the direction of the economy and stubborn inflation.But despite those obstacles, retail sales are expected to be … normal.The National Retail Federation on Tuesday said it expected holiday sales to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent from last year, to as much as $989 billion.
That’s slightly slower growth than the year before when holiday sales in 2023 rose 3.8 percent, but in line with the 3.6 percent annual increases that marked the season before the Covid pandemic sent shopping into overdrive.The economy “looks much more like a prepandemic economy in terms of the spending patterns and the growth,” said Matthew Shay, chief executive of the National Retail Federation on a call with reporters.The group defines the holiday season as sales between Nov.1 to Dec.
31, and does not include purchases from auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.Once again, the growth of e-commerce sales are expected to outpace total retail sales, with the trade group estimating that they will rise 8 to 9 percent, between about $295 billion and $298 billion.Although higher prices continue to cause sticker shock at the store, the labor market has stayed surprisingly strong.
Wage growth has outpaced inflation, allowing people to continue to spend even as they shift priorities from discretionary items and dining out to essential things like groceries.Mr.
Shay said that he expected consumers to be price-conscious and pragmatic during the holiday shopping season, which can be a make-or-break period for retailers.“Many consumers do have those interest rates and the lingering inflation of some categories on their mind,” Mr.
Shay said.“So we expect there will be a promotional environment.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.
If you are in R...