Senate Republicans more optimistic about red flips this election than Mitch McConnells PAC

Is a red wave coming to the Senate in November?Those who remember the optimistic predictions two years ago from the National Republican Senatorial Committee under the stewardship of then-chair Rick Scott of Florida may feel a sense of déjà vu — or PTSD, depending on their point of view.But the NRSC, now helmed by Montana Sen.Steve Daines, is every bit as hopeful that Republicans have a number of pick up opportunities on this year’s electoral map that could, if all goes as their internal polling projects, garner Republicans 53 Senate seats.

If they succeed, they’ll have built a firewall to hold up for GOP priorities even if Democrats win the White House and Tim Walz were positioned to cast deciding votes on legislation.The NRSC memo leaked soon after a much more pessimistic document came from Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund, which warned of headwinds facing not only the Senate slate but Donald Trump himself in key states.McConnell warned personally about “candidate quality” issues in 2022, and while he’s been quiet this cycle, the morose memo did plenty of talking earlier this week.On a number of races, the internal polls and the analysis are diametrically opposed, with the Ohio providing the most vivid divergence.Whereas the SLF read had Republican challenger Bernie Moreno down 6 points to Democratic perennial Sen.

Sherrod Brown, the NRSC polling shows Moreno up 2 points against the free-spending, underwater incumbent.The NRSC optimism extends to the top of the ticket, where they see Trump 11 points ahead of Kamala Harris in Ohio, nearly triple the 4-point edge the GOP nominee has in the SLF’s assessment.Wisconsin is also in the NRSC pickup column, with Eric Hovde “narrowly ahead of Tammy Baldwin 48% to 47% in a head-to-head matchup” and tied with the long-serving Senator in a multi-candidate mix.Hovde, per the NRSC, has improved his favorables and gained 4 points in the last 2 polls. While the spread here isn’t as striking as Oh...