Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by 2 points nationally swing from just a month ago: Fox News poll

Former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest, 50-48% according to a new Fox News national survey.That’s a reversal from last month when Harris had a narrow advantage.Harris, however, is ahead by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states and the candidates tie 49% each among voters in close counties (where the Joe Biden-Trump 2020 margin was less than 10 points).

Trump’s advantage comes from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58-39%).That raises the question of whether the Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote.In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP candidate who lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.Trump’s 2-point edge among likely voters falls well within the margin of error.

The results are identical among the larger group of registered voters.Last month, Harris was up by 2 points (50-48%) among both likely and registered voters. This analysis uses registered voter results for apples-to-apples trend comparisons.These are Trump’s best numbers since Harris became the nominee in August.

The movement toward him mainly comes from an increase in support among White voters, who now favor him by 10 points, up from 4 points last month and 6 points in August.He is also at record highs among voters 65 and over (49%) and those with a college degree (48%).  At the same time, Harris receives her lowest support since becoming the nominee among Black voters (67%), college graduates (49%), voters 65 and over (47%), and Whites with a college degree (46%). Yet on the surface, the race has stayed within a small range.

In August, Trump was ahead by 1 point, then Harris was up by 2 points in September, and now Trump has a 2-point edge.  “Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making g...