Broncos vs. Saints prediction: NFL Week 7 TNF odds, picks, best bets
On Thursday night, the Saints host the Broncos in a battle between rookie quarterbacks.Denver’s Bo Nix travels to face New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler, who made his NFL debut last week.
This game also marks the return of head coach Sean Payton to face his former team.Payton spent 15 years coaching the Saints from 2006-21.The spread for this game has been inching toward Denver as a road favorite due to some significant injury attrition for the home underdogs.Let’s dive into the matchup and see where the value lies.Nix has had a tumultuous start to his rookie season, ranking just 34th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, an all-encompassing stat measuring passing efficiency.
Denver’s offensive line has been excellent in pass protection, ranking first in pass-block win rate, but the Broncos have struggled to find consistent pass-catching options.Payton hinted that rookies Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele would see more work moving forward. The Saints’ defense was impressive to begin the season, but it’s started to fall apart in recent weeks, down to 14th in DVOA.
A significant culprit has been the team’s lack of ability to generate a push up front.According to ESPN, the Saints rank 26th in pass-rush win rate and 32nd in run-stop win rate.
They’ve also allowed the third-most yards before contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data.On a down-to-down basis, Rattler struggled mightily while filling in for the injured Derek Carr.Out of 39 quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks this season, he ranks last in the EPA+CPOE composite.New Orleans scored 27 points last week in a wild game environment that featured 138 plays, but it wasn’t an efficient outing; the Saints finished with an early down success rate of 39%, which would rank 28th in the NFL over the entire season.It won’t get any easier for Rattler this week against a Broncos pass defense ranked seventh in DVOA.Denver will be without Patrick Surtain II, who suffered a concussion on Sunday, bu...