Yankees vs. Guardians Game 4 prediction: ALCS odds, picks, best bets Friday
Game 3 of the ALCS was an instant classic which breathed new life into an ALCS that looked a little dull heading to Cleveland with the Yankees leading, 2-0.The Yankees had a 99% win probability prior to Jhonkensy Noel’s pinch-hit two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning, which came after Emmanuel Clase blew a two-run lead in the top of the eighth.Game 4 is priced closely in the betting markets as a pair of starters who have not pitched in several weeks will make their first postseason starts, as Luis Gil of the Yankees is set to take on Gavin Williams.After a brilliant start to the campaign, Gil’s form tailed off down the stretch throughout August and September.Gil’s last start came versus Pittsburgh on Sept.
28, and he was lit up for six earned runs across five innings.In his last 10 starts, Gil has posted a 4.20 ERA, and holds a fairly unconvincing underlying profile.He pitched to an xFIP of 4.90 while being hard hit 40% of the time and holds a K-BB% of 11.5.Gil features high quality stuff, but has consistently struggled with command throughout his career.
A cold night versus a highly disciplined Guardians offense won’t make it easy if Gil struggles with command early.Gil threw strikes just 61% of the time against right-handed batters this season, which is the second-lowest mark of any starter to throw 60 or more innings.While Gil coming off of a long layoff does make this feel matchup feel more volatile, there is an argument to be made that some time to reset might not be the worst thing for the 26 year-old righty.The Yankees used six relievers in Thursday’s matchup and Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Tim Hill have all pitched in all three games this series.Aaron Boone could opt to use Marcus Stroman in long relief if Gil can’t work deep into this game, but given Stroman’s 5.98 second-half ERA, that likely isn’t Boone’s preferred plan.Williams meanwhile has not pitched since Sept.
22 in St.Louis.Similar to Gil, Williams also featured dra...