Georgia vs. Texas, Florida vs. Kentucky prediction: College football picks

While Texas should be considered elite, the Longhorns have played a relatively tame schedule to this point, smashing lower-end G5 teams like Colorado State, UTSA and UL Monroe and beating Michigan and Oklahoma — ranked teams I power-rate much lower than the market. While Georgia hasn’t looked as dominant as it has in past years, in hindsight the Bulldogs have pieced together some excellent performances this season.Their win over Clemson has aged well now that the Tigers are 5-1 behind college football’s hottest offense, and their one-point road win over Kentucky looks better after the Wildcats upset Ole Miss. The loss to Alabama doesn’t look nearly as strong, but let’s not forget that Carson Beck and Co.

outscored the Crimson Tide 34-13 over the game’s final 40 minutes.The Bulldogs are still chock-full of two-way talent and have flashed moments of brilliance during an up-and-down season. Kirby Smart is a master motivator, and the Longhorns haven’t faced a team this talented yet.

I expect this week’s top-five matchup to live up to the hype and ultimately be decided by a field goal or less. The pick: Georgia +5. Kentucky is in a perfect bounce-back spot after losing to Vanderbilt last week.The Wildcats followed up their only other loss this year (to South Carolina) by taking Georgia to the wire. Graham Mertz is a good quarterback whose season-ending injury will severely hurt Florida’s passing attack.

The Gators will have to lean on Montrell Johnson in the run game, which doesn’t bode well against Kentucky’s swarming front seven, which ranks 14th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. Conversely, Kentucky wants to establish the run (22nd nationally in rush rate), and the Wildcats should roll over Florida’s hapless front seven (92nd in Rush Success Rate allowed, 88th in EPA per Rush allowed). Jonathan Smith is an underrated coach.In time, he should be able to revive Michigan State’s football program. Smith-led teams are 10-2 agai...