CNN data guru says there is a 60% chance the election ends with an Electoral College blowout

CNN data expert Harry Enten said that despite being a close race on the surface, there is a high chance that the election will actually end with the winner receiving over 300 Electoral College votes.CNN news host John Berman noted that the election seems “historically close,” but asked, “What if it’s not?” He then turned to CNN senior political data reporter Enten to break down the numbers and observed, “As close as it is, and we do believe it‘s super close right now, that also means that if things change, even just a little bit, it‘s not really close.”“It isn’t,” Enten agreed.“So we have been talking about the idea that there‘s going to be a historically close election.

I think I might have said it on this particular program, but in fact- will the winner get at least 300 electoral votes? The answer is, majority [chance] yes.” He then broke down how there may be a “relative blowout” in store for the 2024 election.“There is a…60% chance that the winner of this election gets at least 300 electoral votes versus just a 40% chance that the winner ends up getting less than 300 electoral votes,” he said.“So for all the talk that we had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College.”“Oh my God, you’re making my hair hurt,” Berman replied.

“How can it be that it’s so close, but yet still more likely than not that it’s a fairly big victory in the Electoral College.”“If you look across the 7 key swing states, the 7 closest states in all of them, the margin right now is under 2 points – under 2 points – but keep in mind, polling ain‘t perfect, my dear friends,” Enten warned.“On average since 1972, in the battleground states, in the key swing states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points.”Enten then produced electoral maps showing how either former President Trump or Vice Preside...