Michigan vs. Michigan State, Oregon vs. Illinois predictions: College football odds

Everyone knows Michigan can’t throw the ball.The Wolverines are overly reliant on their rushing attack. Though Michigan State’s secondary is super vulnerable, Jonathan Smith has reformed Sparty’s front seven, which ranks 26th in college football in rush success rate allowed.

This is a fantastic matchup for Michigan State’s defense I also think this transfer-laden offense is slowly improving under the first-year head coach.Aidan Chiles and Co.

dropped 32 points on a 51 percent success rate (89th percentile single-game performance) against Iowa’s ever-elite defense last week. Smith-led teams are 16-7 against the spread as road underdogs of more than a field goal, covering by more than six points per game on average.His Spartans will keep it close — if they don’t win outright. Pick: Michigan State +5.5. Are we sure the 6-1 Illini are good? They’ve posted a minus-0.7 percent Net Success Rate. Illinois has been gashed on the ground (114th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed), which doesn’t bode well in this matchup with a continually improving Jordan James — Oregon’s lead back has piled up more than 430 yards at 5.6 yards per carry over the past four weeks. Illinois can’t run the ball (70th in EPA per rush), so they’ll be forced to lean on Luke Altmyer’s arm.

The Illinois quarterback is due for some turnover regression (nine turnover-worthy throws to only one interception), which should come against a ball-hawking Oregon secondary that ranks third in PFF’s coverage grades and 14th in passes defended. We know the No.1-ranked Ducks are good.

A stark comparison point for this matchup: Oregon blanked a Purdue team that dropped 49 on Illinois the prior week. I smell a blowout.It’s time for the Bret Bielema Ponzi Scheme to come crashing down. Though I hate this wager from a schematic perspective, the Jayhawks are crazily undervalued.

They’re 2-5 with a plus-45 point differential.Kansas is not as bad as its 2-5 record indica...