LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: College football odds, picks, best bets

Texas A&M hosts LSU on Saturday night in a matchup between top-15 teams with identical 6-1 records and unblemished SEC marks.While the Aggies are touted for their defense, they’ve yet to face a team with the Tigers’ offensive prowess.Brian Kelly has always been flexible at his different stops when setting his teams up according to their strengths, and now that he’s at LSU, attracting top-level talent year after year is no longer a problem.Despite losing Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two first-round receivers, Kelly and the Tigers’ offense can simply reload thanks to quality depth that will be on display Saturday night in College Station.Garrett Nussmeier has completed 55% (69-of-125) of his passes in three SEC games, but Kelly defended his quarterback this week, saying that his offense incentivizes Nussmeier to make more of his reads further down the field. “You’re not getting some of the cupcake throws that keep the chains moving in some other offenses,” Kelly said.“But we feel like that is a better fit for Garrett in terms of what he does.

And it’s worked pretty good for our offense.” Nussmeier’s aggressiveness has undoubtedly paid off, as he ranks seventh nationally in yards per game (317.4) and leads the SEC with 18 passing touchdowns.According to Game on Paper, his dropbacks account for 0.27 Expected Points Added (EPA) — the 10th-best mark in the country.The reality is that Kelly’s reliance on the passing game is almost necessary given the Tigers’ struggles to move the ball on the ground.LSU’s run success rate is only 38.3%, ranking 99th in the FBS.There aren’t any secrets about how the Aggies will try to attack LSU.

Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M is a more run-dominant team, ranking 34th in yards per carry (5.77) and 39th in EPA/rush (+0.09).It’s no surprise then that the Aggies have a run-play rate of 62.06% — the 11th-highest mark in the country.The problem for LSU is that it’s extremely weak against...