Jets vs. Texans prediction: Thursday Night Football odds, picks, best bet

New York Jets season is on life support after a shocking loss to the New England Patriots, and they have virtually no margin for error for the rest of the year. On Thursday, they’ll welcome a Houston Texans team that’s won four of its last five games to MetLife Stadium. Who will come out on top in this prime-time AFC battle? Let’s dive into the matchups and find some betting value. I’ve been unimpressed with Houston’s offense for much of this season. Despite C.J.Stroud being one of the league’s brightest young quarterbacks, the Texans rank 29th among NFL offenses in early-down success rate, a predictive metric for long-term offensive production.

Houston has struggled to maintain consistency on offense, especially with superstar receiver Nico Collins sidelined. Stefon Diggs is now out for the season after suffering a torn ACL.That puts the Texans in a tough spot against a Jets defense that still ranks second in dropback success rate allowed this season. Stroud struggled against the Jets defense last year, completing just 10 of 23 passes for 91 yards while taking four sacks in a 30-6 New York win.

That was with Collins on the field, and it’s tough to envision Stroud lighting up the scoreboard without two starting receivers. Stroud has also been significantly worse on the road in his career.He’s posted 8.6 yards per attempt and a 105.7 passer rating at home, compared to 6.9 yards per attempt and a 90.5 passer rating on the road. Jets trade acquisition Davante Adams can’t fixed the team’s most significant issue— an offensive line that has significantly underperformed preseason expectations. New York ranks 24th among NFL teams in pass-block win rate this year, and Aaron Rodgers will likely be under significant duress against Will Anderson Jr.

and Danielle Hunter.The duo leads the league’s fourth-best defensive line by pass-rush win rate. Rodgers’ lack of mobility in the pocket has become a significant issue, especially as he’s de...