Column: Harris or Trump? The outcome could be in the hands of voters 65 and older

At the 11th hour, in which the Day of the Dead will be followed by the Day of Dread, the outcome of the presidential election is a toss-up.But if you want to risk the nest egg on something, here’s a safe bet:Voter turnout will be greater in the rapidly growing 65-and-older age group than in any other.

That’s the way it’s been since 1988, and it’s not likely to change next week.In 2020, 72% of registered seniors voted, compared with the national average of 62% for all age groups, with a turnout of just 48% for voters 18 to 24 years old.In other words, my age group could well determine the outcome between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.So how are we leaning?There’s no easy answer, despite polls and headlines that suggest otherwise.A CNN story said that Harris “may be the first Democratic nominee to win seniors since Al Gore,” citing a September poll that gave her a 50%-46% advantage.

A New York Times/Siena poll had Harris up by 2 points over Trump among seniors in early October after trailing him the previous month.“We may end up remembering 2024 as the year the gerontocracy voted itself out of office,” said the New Republic.California Vice President Kamala Harris dominates in support from California donors.

Oct.31, 2024But have you ever gotten a sunny forecast on your weather app, then looked out the window to see rain falling? Polls can be just as flighty, and in fact, a Pew Research Center poll in early October gave Trump a 51%-47% lead among seniors, concluding that “Trump is favored among older voters and men; Harris performs better among younger voters, women.”So I reached out directly to older voters to see how they size things up, beginning with a Trump supporter I used to meet with once a year, to find out if he was still standing by his man.

Dana Martin, 70, has left California for Idaho since we last spoke, and told me his neighborhood — in a Boise suburb — is filled with other conservatives who fled Ca...