UConn vs. Georgia State prediction: College football odds, picks

While still overshadowed by the basketball team, the UConn football program has steadily improved under head coach Jim Mora. The Huskies are 5-3 this season and have won four of their past five games, the one loss being a flukey three-point loss to Wake Forest. There are three reasons why UConn will likely go bowling this season. First, running back Durrell Robinson has exploded out of the backfield.He’s picked up 425 rushing yards and four scores at over 7.5 YPC over his past five games, including a 150-yard, two-touchdown game against Florida Atlantic and a 130-yard, one-touchdown game against Rice. Second, the Huskies’ secondary is vastly improved, ranking in the top 40 nationally in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades behind top cornerback Jordan Wright’s 4.7 yards per reception allowed on 22 targets.

They’ve snuck up to ninth nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed and 12th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Finally, the Huskies defense has consistently gotten off the field, leading all FBS squads in third-and-fourth-down conversion rate allowed (30%). UConn’s Friday Night Lights opponent, the 2-5 Georgia State Panthers, can’t stop dynamic rushing attacks (ranking sub-100th nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Explosiveness allowed), mainly attack through the air (ranking 16th in Pass Play rate) and boast the nation’s ninth-worst third-and-fourth-down conversion rate (35%). My numbers project the Huskies closer to 8.5-point favorites, but given the schematic matchup, I’m banking on a double-digit victory. THE PLAY: UConn -7.5 (-110, DraftKings)Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018.Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog.

He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young....