Why Saudi-Israeli relations will likely still happen despite the presidential elections outcome

Are Israel and Saudi Arabia edging closer to normalization — despite the regional conflict and regardless of the US presidential outcome this week? Signs are mounting that this landmark agreement could come together even within the year.Before the Oct.7 Hamas attack on Israel, Saudi Arabia and Israel were in deep discussion about peace and expanding the Abraham Accords.

These hopes appeared dashed after a year of war, with over 40,000 Palestinians reportedly dead, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, and Saudi Arabia’s hardline stance on the need for a Palestinian state.Yet, the Abraham Accords remain intact — a sign these dreams may not be shattered.Trade has been a major advantage of the Accords — which normalized relations between Israel and three Arab countries: United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco — and it remains resilient.In 2023, UAE-Israel trade reached $2.9 billion.

By mid-2024 it was already at $1.922 billion, potentially reaching $3.3 billion by year-end, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.Morocco and Bahrain have also seen noticeable trade growth this year. Tourism to Abraham Accords countries declined, mainly as a result of Israeli travel advisories.

However, there has been a quiet yet notable rise in Arab delegations visiting Israel since the war, says Dan Feferman, executive director of Sharaka, an NGO promoting people-to-people peace between Israel and Accords countries.For example, in July, a delegation of 28 Moroccan social-media influencers came to Israel.They toured the southern communities destroyed by Hamas, visited the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum and met with Israeli politicians in conversations on counter-extremism.Even if they disagree with Israel’s response to Oct.

7, Arab groups acknowledged the impact of the attack, Feferman says.The UAE and Bahrain only signed the Abraham Accords in 2020 with clear support from the Saudis, who could have withdrawn it after Oct.7.

Instead, Riyad...