2024 college football picks, odds, predictions: Colorado will win Big 12
We’ve entered the stretch run of the college football season. Conference races are tight coast to coast, but none compare to the logjam we’re witnessing in the Big 12. With just a month left in the regular season, five Big 12 programs are priced between +190 and 10/1 to win the conference. For perspective, the Big Ten and ACC have just three serious challengers between even-money and +900, while the SEC features four in that range. So, where should we be parking our money this November? Colorado being a “public” team explains why this bet is currently negative EV. At +350 odds, the implied probability of the Buffaloes winning the Big 12 would be in the 22% neighborhood.College football projections from the Athletic and the Kelly Ford don’t align with oddsmakers.
Both ratings project the likelihood of a CU conference title in the 10% to 15% range. So, why am I snubbing my nose at the -EV? The Buffs’ schedule. Back in August, it appeared that Colorado was set to face a murderers’ row in November.Utah was coming off back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances.
Kansas had just won nine games and finished ranked for the first time in 16 years.And Oklahoma State was coming off a 10-win campaign and returned the reigning Doak Walker Award winner. How things have changed in two months. Utah is in free fall, having lost four straight.
The Utes’ offense is a tire fire without Cam Rising at the controls, ranking 92nd nationally in quality drives and 123rd in pass success rate. Kansas has been a shell of its former self without offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki pulling the strings.The Jayhawks were among the most explosive teams last season, racking up 24 plays of 40-plus yards from scrimmage (seventh nationally).This season, it’s a popgun offense in Lawrence, with their big-play rate slipping to 103rd nationally. Finally, Oklahoma State has fallen apart.
Ollie Gordon II has been held below 51 yards on five occasions after leading the nation in rush...