For Biden Officials, Lebanon May Be a Problem Too Big to Solve

With faint hopes for ending the war in Gaza before President Biden leaves office, U.S.officials have turned their focus to Lebanon, where they are scrambling to strike a cease-fire deal to end Israel’s invasion of the country.But Lebanon is proving to be just as stubborn a problem as Gaza for the Biden administration.Israel’s offensive in its northern neighbor alarms Biden officials, who say it could turn into a battlefront between Israel and Iran, create a new humanitarian catastrophe, and even drag in the United States and neighboring Arab countries as combatants.

For more than a year, officials have said that it is Israel’s conflict with the Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah, not its war with Hamas in Gaza, that poses the greatest risk to the United States.So far, however, U.S.diplomacy has failed to stabilize the situation, which a top aide recently warned had “escalated out of control.” And U.S.

officials and analysts now say it is increasingly likely that President Biden will hand off the crisis to his successor.“This is a conflict which can at best be managed or contained,” not fully resolved, said Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East peace negotiator at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Some senior U.S.officials have called Israel’s devastating campaign against Hezbollah an opportunity to reshape the politics of Beirut and stand up a stronger Lebanese government, reducing the influence of Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran.

An empowered Lebanese Army with strong government backing is the only way to keep Hezbollah from reconstituting along Israel’s border and avoid further Israel military action, officials and analysts say.To some, it is a fanciful goal.While Hezbollah is clearly weakened and Iran may feel intimidated by Israel’s recent displays of military prowess, both retain influence that they are unlikely to surrender easily.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser...