Opinion | The Hyper-Close House Race That Could Make All the Difference

On the final Friday before Election Day, in what may be the tightest House race in the country, Josh Riley, the Democratic candidate for New York’s 19th Congressional District, was making the case to me that this contest would turn not on voters’ partisan leanings but on which candidate people believe shares their “upstate values.” Not that he was terribly illuminating about what those are.“I’m a Democrat,” he said after an evening rally in Ithaca.“I come from a Republican family, and, around here, people care a lot less about your politics than your work ethic and your character.” It’s not a Republican or Democratic thing to lower the cost of prescription drugs, he said, or cover pre-existing health conditions, or protect basic government benefits.“It’s something that should be uniting us as Americans,” he went on.

“I don’t think it’s a Democratic or Republican idea that you should be able to retire with dignity and get the benefits that you’ve earned.And so, around here, it’s not so much about what your political party is.

It’s about those basic upstate values.”To win in deep-purple swing districts like this one, candidates like Mr.Riley generally are not well served by running around willy-nilly lobbing hyperpartisan howlers à la Marjorie Taylor Greene.

They need to find that sweet spot where they are firing up their base yet not turning off the moderates and swing voters weary of smash-mouth politics.This means drawing clear distinctions between themselves and their opponents, without coming across as ideologically or temperamentally extreme.It means presenting themselves as fearless fighters, but also reasonable and measured and ready to reach across the aisle to get things done.

It means driving home what is at stake in their race, and the entire election, without going too dark.It can be a tough balancing act for so-called majority makers like Mr.

Riley, especially in this era of nationalized elections and hyperpo...