If the late-night election results hold up, Donald Trump won’t just be returning to Washington — he’ll be bringing some important friends with him in the Senate.Senate races are high-stakes affairs for five reasons.First, Senate terms run for six years, so senators elected now will still be in office until 2030.Second, only a third of the Senate is up for re-election every two years, so if Republicans can build a majority with a few seats to spare, they can afford to have some setbacks in the 2026 midterms and keep control of the chamber — unlike in the House, where every seat is up for grabs again in two years.They can also breathe a little easier about replacing J.D.
Vance in Ohio, or aging members of their caucus such as Mitch McConnell and Chuck Grassley.Third, the Senate controls confirmations of judges, so a president can put a longer-term stamp on the Supreme Court and the lower courts.Fourth, the Senate also controls confirmations of the Cabinet and other executive branch offices, so a working majority means that Trump can get his team in place early and not waste a lot of time — which is especially important to a president who only has four years and can’t run again.Fifth, there are shaky members of this Republican caucus, like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and blue-state Sen.Susan Collins of Maine.
The further Republicans get past 50 votes, the less they need to pull their punches to appease the least reliable members of their caucus.On top of that, McConnell is stepping down as Senate majority leader, so more new senators means a stronger mandate for a fresh look at who leads the caucus.Republicans were always likely to recapture a Senate majority this fall.The map of seats contested in 2024 leans heavily towards red states, but in 2018, 2012 and 2006, these races were all held in blue-wave conditions.Democrats’ luck finally ran out.The GOP went into the election with 49 Senate seats, and the Democrats’ best chances to gain a seat were in r...