Eagles vs. Commanders prediction: NFL Thursday Night Football odds, picks
On Thursday night, the upstart Washington Commanders visit the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East battle with massive postseason implications. The Eagles are 3.5-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 48.5 points.Who will emerge victorious in this prime-time divisional affair? The Commanders have flown past their preseason win total projection of 6.5 and appear poised to make the postseason in Jayden Daniels’ rookie season. Daniels has exceeded all expectations, ranking fourth among qualified quarterbacks in QBR with nine touchdowns to just two interceptions and an impressive rushing profile.
Kliff Kingsbury has done an excellent job as the offensive coordinator — Washington ranks second among NFL offenses in EPA per play this season. However, a road matchup on a short week presents significant challenges against a surging Eagles defense. After a rocky start to the year, Vic Fangio’s defense leads the NFL in EPA per play and success rate allowed since the team’s Week 5 bye.Rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been immense difference-makers, and Zack Baun has proven to be one of the steals of the offseason. The Eagles rank 10th among defensive lines in pass-rush win rate and should be able to generate pressure against Daniels.
The rookie passer hasn’t been the same against pressure this season, ranking 31st out of 37 qualified quarterbacks with a 58% adjusted completion rate. Kellen Moore’s Eagles offense has begun to take shape in recent weeks, especially with A.J.Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy.
Over his last five games, Jalen Hurts has 16 total touchdowns and just one interception. He’ll face a Washington defense that has improved mightily since the beginning of the season under the stewardship of Dan Quinn. Since Week 5, the Commanders rank sixth in EPA per pass allowed but just 24th in EPA per rush allowed.Washington has struggled to defend up front this season, ranking 29th in adjusted defensive...