Virginia vs. Notre Dame, Kansas State vs. Arizona State predictions: College football odds, picks
Virginia is a bad football team.The Cavaliers are 5-4.They’ve also posted a -27 net point differential against FBS squads, a -2.1 percent Net Success Rate (99th nationally) and a -0.12 Net EPA per Play margin (115th).I wasn’t impressed when they won four of their first five games over FCS Richmond, Wake Forest (by one), Coastal Carolina and Boston College.
They’ve won one of three since, with blowout losses to Clemson (by 17) and North Carolina (by 27).Notre Dame has been dominant since that gross upset loss to Northern Illinois.The Irish have won seven straight by an average score of 44-10.They’re the nation’s best defense by EPA per Play allowed, and they’ve been outstanding against the pass, ranking top-15 nationally in sack rate and interceptions.
Meanwhile, Virginia’s offensive line hasn’t held up well in pass protection (116th nationally in sack rate allowed), and quarterback Anthony Colandrea has thrown four picks over his past two games.On the other side of the ball, the Irish boast an explosive rushing attack behind dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard and ever-elusive running back Jeremiyah Love.That’ll play against Virginia’s front seven, which ranks 118th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.The pick: Notre Dame -22.5.Arizona State’s offense is one-dimensional.
The Sun Devils rush at the 15th-highest rate nationally behind superstar running back Cam Skattebo.But Kansas State boasts an elite front seven, ranking third nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.If you stop Skattebo, you stop the Sun Devils.The situational spot screams Wildcats, who are fresh off a bye and looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Houston two weeks ago.
They’re likely undervalued in the market after that flukey loss, given they out-gained the Cougars by over 120 yards.Meanwhile, the Sun Devils are certainly overvalued.They’re 5-1 in one-possession games with a plus-7 turnover margin.
Their luck should flip down the stretch.BYU is the most overva...