Week 11 NFL player props, odds, predictions: Josh Jacobs, George Pickens
The NFL Week 11 slate has big-time matchups and plenty of player prop betting value.In this article, I’ll break down my favorite picks on the board from the Sunday slate.I went 1-2 on my picks in this column last week, marking my first losing week of the season.I’m now 21-7 for the season on these picks and 83-62 on player props overall for 24.39 units of profit.The Packers have operated an incredibly run-heavy offense this season, feeding Josh Jacobs on early downs.
They lead the NFL in early-down rush play rate, and I expect that to continue against this run funnel Bears defense.Chicago ranks sixtth against the pass by DVOA but just 30th against the run, per @FTNBetting.As a result, opponents have the ninth-lowest pass play rate over expectation in the league this year.In other words, Bears opponents have skewed very run-heavy.The Bears have allowed the fifth-highest explosive rush rate in the NFL this year and the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, per @FantasyPtsData.The Packers should generate plenty of rushing lanes for Jacobs, ranking seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt.Jacobs has been an excellent running back this season, ranking fourth with 20 runs of 10+ yards and fifth with 3.73 yards after contact per attempt.This looks like a smash spot for him, with the Packers operating as road favorites.The Rams’ red-zone woes have been well-documented, and they were on full display Monday night as the team had to settle for three field goals on trips inside the Miami 20-yard line.Last year, the Rams ranked eighth in the NFL with a 60.3% touchdown rate in the red zone.
That has dropped to 46.9% (30th) this year.Positive regression should be coming soon with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy and the offensive line’s health improving with four of five Week 1 starters back in the lineup.The Patriots rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup for Stafford.Stafford has 2+ passing touchdo...