Chiefs vs. Bills prediction: NFL Week 11 picks, odds, bets

The Chiefs and Bills renew their annual rivalry when they face off in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.Kansas City remains the only undefeated team at 9-0, and this will likely be the last time during the regular season that the Chiefs will find themselves in an underdog role.While coaches tend to have different thoughts on approaching an undefeated campaign, there is some thought that you’re better off losing during the regular season than having your first loss occur during the playoffs.As a result, this game might be less important to the Chiefs in the grand scheme of things.In this preview, we’ll revisit the head-to-head matchups in this series and explore why Bills quarterback Josh Allen tends to save his best performances for these big games.Here are my Bills vs Chiefs best bets.Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions through nine games and is five away from his career high of 14 last season. However, his completion rate of 69.5% is also a career-best.According to Robby Greerre’s quarterback rankings, Mahomes even has a Completion Over Expectation (CPOE) rate of 4.1%.Thus, while Mahomes is recording more interceptions, he’s still throwing the ball with a high degree of accuracy.And when you look at the all-encompassing Total QBR metric, Mahomes ranks fifth with a 67.6 value.Even when Mahomes posted his worst Total QBR (63.9) last season, the Chiefs still won their second-straight title.While we’ve become almost wholly data-driven in sports today, it’s clear that the numbers fail to tell the complete story with the Chiefs. As a result, we can’t overlook that there are intangibles at play here with the Chiefs, such as the continuity with their coaching staff and innate ability to rise to the occasion during the game’s pivotal moments.Allen is having another stellar season, and it’s hard to imagine that he’s yet to win an MVP award. This season, he’s thrown 17 touchdowns and even rushed for four on the ground with jus...