The Final Push for Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine is escalating quickly and unpredictably.Ukraine is now using U.S.-made missiles to strike inside Russia, with President Biden’s permission.

Russia has raised the threat of nuclear weapons.It has also sacrificed thousands of troops to take more territory in eastern Ukraine, achieving its largest gains in more than two years.At the same time, an end to the war seems closer than ever.

Donald Trump has promised to negotiate a truce quickly once he takes office in January.Given how much Ukraine depends on the United States, Trump could force Ukraine to accept a deal.These things — the recent escalations and a potential end to the war — are related.

As Russia and Ukraine prepare for a potential peace deal, they are working to improve their negotiating positions.That reality has kicked off a dangerous and urgent phase of the war, although one that could last only a few months.Today’s newsletter will explain the recent events and what could come next.Ratcheting upThe recent events in Ukraine can be summarized as a series of escalations.

After Ukraine lost territory on its eastern front, it opened a northern front this past summer in the Russian region of Kursk.It grabbed Russian territory for the first time in the war, and has managed to hold the land.

Russia then recruited more than 10,000 soldiers from North Korea to try to reclaim the area.Washington saw North Korea’s involvement as a big deal.After all, Russia has warned the West against sending any of its own troops in Ukraine’s defense.

Yet Russia turned around and got outside help.In response, the United States has allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russian territory.Ukraine did so for the first time yesterday, hitting an ammunition depot....