Penn State vs. Minnesota prediction: College football Week 13 odds, picks, best bets
Penn State bounced back from a disappointing home loss to Ohio State with dominant wins over Washington and Purdue by a combined 68 points.The Nittany Lions are rolling into this matchup against Minnesota, which is coming off its bye week after a loss to Rutgers.The Golden Gophers have already locked up a bowl game spot, but they will look to play spoiler here.Where does the advantage lie in this Big Ten matchup? Let’s dive into the numbers and find out.Penn State boasts one of the most consistent offenses in the country, ranking top eight in success rate in both the pass and run games.Drew Allar’s efficiency has improved under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, as he’s jumped from 6.8 YPA to 9.8.However, Penn Sate’s wide receiver room lacks elite explosiveness, and Minnesota ranks 23rd in PFF’s coverage grades.The Gophers must always stay conscious of where tight end Tyler Warren is.
He’s arguably the most versatile offensive talent in the country, posting 67 catches for 808 yards and five touchdowns, along with 157 rushing yards and four touchdowns.The Nittany Lions also boast a nasty running back duo with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton.However, the Gophers offer far more pushback against the run than the opponents they’ve seen recently, thanks to a stout run-stop unit led by standout linebacker Cody Lindenberg.First-year Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has done an excellent job with this Gophers group that ranks 11th in the FBS in early downs EPA/play allowed.
This is arguably the best non-Ohio State defense that Penn State has seen all season.The Golden Gophers haven’t been able to run the ball all year, ranking 107th in rushing success rate.That won’t change here against the Penn State defense, which ranks fifth in EPA/rush allowed.
However, they’re well aware of that deficiency, as they rank 113th in rush play rate and have leaned into more of an Air Raid offense with quarterback Max Brosmer.After transferri...