Week 12 NFL player props, odds, predictions: Bucky Irving, Josh Downs

We’re back in action in the NFL with a Week 12 slate loaded with exciting games.n this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop picks on the Sunday slate.I went 4-0 on my picks in this column last week, bringing my record to 25-7 for the season on these picks. Overall, I’m 92-64 on NFL player props this season for 31.6 units of profit.The Buccaneers are in a beautiful spot to get their run game rolling this week.

They’re favored by six points on the road against the Giants, who rank 27th against the run by EPA/play.However, with Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker splitting work, getting a strong handle on projecting snap share can be challenging.Instead, let’s bet on Bucky Irving doing what he does best — breaking off an explosive carry.According to Fantasy Points Data, Irving ranks third out of 53 qualified running backs with 0.31 missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth with a 7.3% explosive rush rate.The Giants, meanwhile, have allowed the highest explosive rush rate (8.6%) and the fourth-most missed tackles per attempt.Irving has cleared this line in six of eight games with nine-plus carries this season, and most projections have him around 11-12 carries this week, with the upside for much more if Tampa Bay opts to give its talented rookie runner more work coming off the bye week.The Bears unveiled some offensive changes under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.After Shane Waldron left much to be desired, Brown strived to make rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’s life easier. According to Fantasy Points Data, he threw to his first read on 87.1% of his passing plays and had an average time to throw (TTT) of 2.21 seconds, much lower than his 2.7 TTT coming into the game I’d expect that same strategy against the Vikings, who lead the NFL in blitz rate.In that offensive structure, Moore was heavily utilized in the screen game and had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 0.9 yards.All seven of his targets came within ni...