Opinion | Hezbollah Has Been Weakened. That Might Not Last.

Wars have a transformative impact on the parties that fight them.That was certainly the case the last time Israel and Hezbollah engaged in all-out conflict back in July 2006.

Hezbollah emerged from that fight — which lasted just over a month — battered but defiant after standing up to the most powerful military in the Middle East.That experience, along with Iranian support, set Hezbollah up to make significant strides militarily and politically in the years that followed, transforming it into a transnational organization equipped with an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles while also being represented by lawmakers in Lebanon’s Parliament.Now, with a nascent cease-fire in place meant to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah, it’s clear that the group is going through an evolution of a different kind.

The early months of the current war consisted of tit-for-tat exchanges, while Gaza remained the center of gravity.But beginning in July, the Israeli military and intelligence campaign against Hezbollah ramped up drastically.

Through a combination of drone strikes, air power and high-value targeting, Israel has decimated Hezbollah’s senior leadership and military infrastructure.As a result, Hezbollah, long the most powerful member of Tehran’s Axis of Resistance, has found its ability to operate across borders constrained.What appears likely to emerge — a more localized Hezbollah, operating with reduced Iranian influence — could change the decades-old regional security balance throughout the Middle East.

Israel has successfully weakened both Hamas and Hezbollah over the past year — and its archrival Iran in the process.But a weakened Iran can still be dangerous, and many observers have voiced concerns that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could try to race toward a working nuclear bomb, now widely viewed as the only feasible deterrent against an ascendant Israel.As the ink on the cease-fire deal dries, Israel is in arguably its m...