Dolphins vs. Packers prediction: NFL Thanksgiving odds, pick, best bets

A late November night game on Thanksgiving in Lambeau is going to have a wonderful aura to it.In a battle between two of the NFL’s better offenses, the Dolphins come into Thanksgiving at 5-6 after looking like a shell of their explosive selves without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.Still, Miami is on the outside looking in at a playoff spot and every game is a near must-win.

The Dolphins travel to the frozen tundra as three-point underdogs for this prime-time matchup.Have we said it is going to be cold?Tagovailoa is 1-3 straight-up and 0-4 against the spread when temperatures dip below 40 degrees, according to BetMGM.The Dolphins understandably have taken some money here given their strong play in recent weeks, having torched the Patriots, 34-15, last time out.It would be fine to take the Dolphins if the Packers’ run defense had holes, but they’re a solid run unit ranking ninth-best in yards per carry allowed (4.2 YPC).

Green Bay’s passing defense is also among the better units, ranking 11th in pass defense, according to defense adjusted value over average (DVOA).Meanwhile Miami can’t stop the run, ranking 26th in DVOA.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur is an artist when it comes to designing run plays, and Josh Jacobs is such a bruiser that it is hard to see Mike McDaniel having this team ready to steal one on the road in hostile territory.PICK: Packers -3 (-110, ESPN BET) | Josh Jacobs 100+ rushing yards (+290, Bet365) — Small sprinkle on 150+ yards at 15/1 on Bet365 Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.

During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022....