Browns vs. Broncos odds, predictions: Monday Night Football, picks, bets
Sports bettors know all too well about regression.No matter how hot a team is, the betting market will often catch up.
And we have a prime example of that on Monday Night Football with the Denver Broncos hosting the Cleveland Browns as 6-point favorites.That is the largest that Denver has been favored all season.In fact, the Broncos have not been this big of a favorite since Week 2 of the 2022 season – a stretch of 44 games.But the Broncos are one of the league’s biggest surprises with a 7-5 mark that has them in the playoff picture.
That is a far cry from what oddsmakers anticipated. Denver entered the year with a win total of 5.5, which was barely above the league-low 4.5 for the weak Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots.With those unexpected wins have come point spread covers.Denver is tied with the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers for the NFL’s best mark at 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season.
Keep in mind the point spread is designed to have a 50/50 outcome so teams should not outperform the market at this rate.However, every season usually has an extreme outlier or two.For example, last year, the Lions went 12-5 ATS.
In fact, over the past decade, each season’s top performer has posted a cover percentage of about 70%.This exercise is tough because of pushes, a small sample size and the regular season expanding from 16 to 17 games.
But the overarching gist is that all teams don’t finish the season 9-8 or 8-9 ATS.There will be teams that cover 11 to 13 games. So, this brings us to tonight’s game.
Are the Broncos going to finish the year as one of those special teams or are we about to see regression? Is this point spread of 6 a sign that the betting market is catching up to them? Specifically, is now the time to fade them? After all, we all want to buy the dip or sell the rip.I do not think we are there yet, although there is a slight tax.I actually like the Broncos as a regular play.
The main reason is that their rookie quar...